Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
