Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
